Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-04T00:28:57

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been reaching Moderate levels (100-1000pfu) at the diurnal maxima. Wind speeds over the forecast period are considered unlikely to drive significant further increases in electron flux levels. Flux levels are expected to be on a steady or declining trend during much of this period. An increase in wind speeds due to a coronal hole HSS is possible later on Day 3 (06 Aug). This is likely to suppress electron flux levels in the short term, with any electron response expected to be after the end of this 4 day period.

Resultant 24-hour integrated fluence is therefore also expected to be on a steady or declining trend, staying below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.