MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-04T12:03:22
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is expected to persist at background to moderate levels. The corresponding fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but possibly with an increasing trend.
This is supported by the recurrence-persistence model that shows very low single figures. The lastest REFM output is considered to raise the fluence levels too quickly, most likely influenced by what happened on the last rotation when the coronal hole was much larger.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-07-04T12:03:22 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |