MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-05T00:12:42
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at background levels through the period. The corresponding fluence is forecast to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) with insufficient solar winds to drive it higher. This is supported by the REFM 3-day forecast, and the 27-day recurrence. The statistical-based recurrence-persistence model has very low probabilities in low single figures.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-06-05T00:12:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |