Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-29T00:01:24

The recent CMEs have seen the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) considerably drop out and remain at Background levels, despite the recent arrival of the high speed stream originating from CH60. It is forecast to exhibit a rising trend over the following days and perhaps reach high levels during the diurnal maximum on day 3 or 4, although the extent to which this occurs is low confidence as the recent CME(s) have caused significant departure from persistence forecasting methods. The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is therefore likely to show an increasing trend into the coming UTC weekend, although perhaps only offering a Chance of exceeding Active at peak, plateauing into the new week.