MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-28T00:11:27
The high energy electron (greater than 2MeV) flux is expected to remain at Background to Moderate levels, but with an rising trend through the period. The associated fluence is therefore expected to gradually increase, whilst remaining below the Active threshold.
The Met Office REFM model is therefore considered to be offering good guidance, keeping the fluence below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-05-28T00:11:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |