MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-21T00:12:05
A gradual increase in the high energy electron flux is expected, under the influence of the current HSS. However, despite an increasing trend the flux is not expected to reach High levels (1000 pfu or over). The corresponding fluence is also expected to show a gradual rise, whilst remaining below the Active threshold. This is in keeping with the previous rotation of CH57 and CH59, and also with the guidance shown by the Met Office REFM model.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-05-21T00:12:05 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |