Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-21T00:29:15

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently High, with only brief drop-outs likely from any geomagnetic enhancements to the solar wind on day 1 (21st) and day 2 (22nd). The arrival of the fast wind of CH47/- is likely to lead to a more significant drop out in flux later on day 2 (22nd), to background for a time, before a recovery to mainly High levels occurs through day 3 (23rd) and day 4 (24th). Although confidence in this particular aspect is low. 

The associated fluence is currently Active, and expected to persist at these levels through days 1 and 2 (21st and 22nd). This is supported by REFM, which is giving good guidance. There is a slight chance of fluence levels reaching Very Active levels on day 1 and 2. The forecast dropout in flux through day 3, decreases confidence for maintaining Active fluence into day 4, but fluence levels are expected to increase again towards the end of the period.