MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-14T00:14:59
The high energy flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background, and expected to persist at this level until the arrival of the fast wind of negative polarity CH45. On the previous rotation, this feature lead to a period of High flux levels. Whilst there is some uncertainty regarding the timing and strength of the connection on this occasion due to changes in the structure of the coronal hole, high flux is likely on day 4 (17th).
The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to stay at background levels for much of the period, and below the Active (1e8) threshold, as indicated by REFM. However, an increasing trend is expected day 3 (16th) onward, with a chance of reaching the Active threshold by the end of day 4 (17th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-04-14T00:14:59 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 5% |