Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-15T00:12:24

The high energy electron flux is currently in a state of rebound as initial activity from coronal hole 32 abates slightly. This saw the re-establishment of the typical diurnal oscillation, which rose to a peak in High flux during the early UTC evening before ebbing away with the final hours of the reporting period.

The chances of Active high energy electron fluence being attained are probably greatest on days one and two, with levels likely to rise towards the threshold, but perhaps narrowly falling short. Should this not occur by the end of day two (Tuesday 16 March), it is unlikely to be realised later in the working week, perhaps not until after the establishment of succeeding coronal hole 34. 

Current coronal hole features are showing quite some departure from persistence, and as such REFM is not considered to be as reliable, although the general rising trend in risk of Active is considered valid guidance.