MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-16T00:14:44
The high energy electron flux is currently above the High level today, and is expected to remain close to High levels over the next few days. It is possible it will be at its highest on Day 1 (16 Mar) with a slow declining trend thereafter as the influence of the high speed stream from CH32/- wanes.
The 24 hour integrated fluence continues to rise as the radiation belts rebound from the high speed stream and allows electron levels at GEO to increase. Levels are most likely to remain Active over the next few days but with a declining trend by Day 2.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-03-16T00:14:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 1% |