Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-23T00:16:27

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at predominately High levels throughout the period in response to the high speed stream from CH34/-. This means that current Active 24-hour electron fluence is expected throughout, perhaps temporarily appearing to reduce should significant geomagnetic activity redevelop on day one, either from the ongoing coronal hole, or perhaps glancing incidence from the 19 March CME.

The current trajectory of the GOES 16 electron trace suggests there is also a Slight Chance that Very Active 24-hour integrated fluence may be realised, with this most likely on day one (Tuesday 23 March), otherwise becoming less likely as the week advances.

Forthcoming coronal hole 37 falls outside the remit of this forecast period, but in any case should not result in as pronounced an event in terms of electrons for being a smaller and less potent feature.