Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-21T00:14:32

The reaction in high energy electrons at GOES 16 is considered to have started, with a rise seen from Normal Background flux into Moderate during the second half of the UTC day on Saturday 20 February. This is likely to continue in earnest over the remainder of the UTC weekend, with the electron response at GOES 16 appearing stronger once elevated geomagnetic activity more fully subsides into the new working week.

As such, the chances of surpassing the Active 24-hour integrated fluence threshold increase with time, becoming 'odds-on' by the end of day one and certainly day two, with the more modest predecessor of the current coronal hole having proved capable of breaching Active 27 days ago.

A very gradual bleeding off of electron counts in the near-Earth environment may begin by the end of the four days, although once again (as with other elements of the space weather forecast) it should be noted the possible presence of a filament eruption that may disrupt this forecast into the new week. This aspect will be more fully assessed as soon as is practicable. For more information, please see the 'Solar Activity' section.