Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-22T00:13:21

With Earth connected to the high speed steam from CH27, high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through the period. However some temporary electron re-distribution possible on days 1 or 2 (22nd or 23rd) if Earth experiences a glancing blow from the 20th Feb CME. Electron counts may then start reducing more generally later in the period as the high speed stream wanes.

24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain above the active (1e8 integrated pfu) level through much of the period, with a good signal for this from current REFM data. However, a temporary fall to below the threshold would be expected if the above mentioned CME impacts the near Earth space environment.