Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-15T00:01:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) values are expected to stay at mainly background to moderate values. Given that the recent high speed stream has now waned with no reaction in the electron flux values, it is now unlikely that flux levels will reach the Alert level (1e3pfu) in the next few days. As such it is highly unlikely that the electron fluence will reach the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) during this period.

The REFM 3-day forecast now has a below Active level and declining trend. Although the model suggested a rise towards the Active threshold yesterday, with the solar wind speeds now ambient it is unlikely there is sufficient energy to drive any large increase in fluence levels. The 27-day recurrence also shows low values, as does the recurrence-persistence model.