Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-08T00:28:44

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at generally background to moderate values through day 1 (08 February) as the high speed stream is likely deforming the radiation belts away from the GOES-16 spacecraft. A response may then be manifested as an increase in occasionally diurnally high (1e3 pfu) values as the high speed stream eases, subject to any significant geomagnetic enhancements.

Corresponding electron fluence values are expected to increase through the period, with a heightened chance of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, as flux increases due to the declining high speed stream from coronal hole 22.