Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-07T00:18:48

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 has recently dropped out due to the arrival of the fast wind of CH22/+, after peaking at high levels (above 1000 pfu) on the 6th. Through day 1 and 2 (7th and 8th) flux levels are expected to recover as solar winds ease. Further fast wind arrivals from CH23, and perhaps CH24 could then lead to further drop outs day 3 (9th) onward. With persistence currently being a poor guide, this leads to low confidence with the progression of the observed flux.  However peak values are expected to reach high at times, especially diurnal maximum. 

The associated electron fluence is currently below the active threshold, but expected to rise through day 1 alongside the increasing flux, with a chance of becoming Active day 2. Confidence then falls due to the potential for further flux drop outs from any enhancement from the fast winds of CH23/+ and CH24/+. REFM is currently giving poor guidance as this is currently not taking account of the enhancement from CH22/+.