Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-31T00:20:12

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at high levels (greater than 1000 pfu) and is expected to persist at this level through days 1 (31st) and into day 2 (1st). The arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 19, is then expected to cause a dropout in the observed flux at GEO, perhaps to background levels for a time. Once any geomagnetic activity subsides later day 2 and into day 3 (1st and 2nd), mainly high flux levels are anticipated to resume, likely peaking day 4 (3rd),

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently Active, above the 1e8 integrated pfu threshold, and forecast to remain above this level into day 2. The fluence is then expected to decline, perhaps briefly below the Active threshold later day 2 or 3 (1st or 2nd). This decline is likely to be brief, however, with a chance of returning above the Active threshold later day 3 and into day 4 (2nd and 3rd), although this is low confidence. REFM is currently giving poor guidance, reducing values much too quickly, and should be disregarded.