Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-29T12:20:49

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently in a stable oscillation peaking in High flux. A very slight erosion of this level is expected in the coming 36 hours or so as solar winds become ambient, which manifests as a reasonable dip in probabilities on day two, if only given the proximity of the 24-hour integrated fluence to the Active threshold of 1e8.

From here, there is some uncertainty about the onset time of coronal hole 19 for day three and beyond, perhaps Likely starting above Active on Sunday 31 January, but probably falling below within 24 hours in the ensuing geomagnetic activity as this distorts the van Allen belts. The degree of any uptick in activity is similarly uncertain later on day four, but Active fluence is thought to become likely beyond the end of this four-day period, once geomagnetic activity has subsided.