Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-02T00:29:07

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at background levels in response to geomagnetic storming early on 01 March and subsequent redistribution of electrons in the radiation belts. Residual geomagnetic activity is likely to inhibit a sharp rise in electron flux on day 1, although this is expected to reach moderate and probably high (1e3pfu) levels on diurnal peaks by day 4 due following the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 28.

Electron fluence also declined sharply and is well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. Any rise is dependent in the recovery rate of the electron flux, with a rise toward the Active threshold most likely from day 2 onward as the high speed stream becomes established.