Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-08T00:09:47

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) may increase to reach high levels (1e3 pfu) at the diurnal peaks later in the forecast period. The corresponding electron fluence values should follow a steadily increasing trend, but are currently considered likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. The REFM model shows that levels will rise to near the Active fluence threshold on Days 2 to 3, but this is considered low confidence. The 27-day recurrence has levels broadly flat, because the fluence failed to rise following the high speed stream on the previous rotation. The recurrence-persistence model has very low probabilities (1 to 4 %), but these are considered too low.