MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-15T00:07:18
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background to moderate levels. The corresponding fluence is currently showing a very slight increasing trend, but despite this the fluence is expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.
The Met Office REFM model keeps the fluence well below the Active threshold, which is accepted as good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-01-15T00:07:18 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |