Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-16T00:27:19

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain predominantly at background to moderate levels. The possibility of slightly elevated solar wind speeds on Days 3 and 4 (18 and 19 Dec) may start to increase the electron flux levels, but it is unlikely to reach High (1000 pfu) levels before the end of Day 4.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, although an increasing trend is possible towards the end of the period. However it is highly unlikely to reach the Active threshold. The recurrence-persistence model has very low probabilities, increasing on Day 4, however this is due to persistence from the last rotation. Given that the coronal holes are quite different on this rotation to the previous, any increase is unlikely to occur until after Day 4. This is reflected in the REFM model, which is thought to be giving good guidance at present.