MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-15T00:00:36
There are currently no CMEs that feature in the forecast.
There is though to be only one minor returning coronal hole on the western hemisphere, expected to be geoeffective during the early UTC hours of day 4 (Fri 18). However, the effects from this feature are expected to be very modest and likely insufficient to expected a response from the High energy electron flux. As such, the Active threshold is not expected to be approached in the period. This is confirmed by the latest REFM output, which keeps the levels well below the Active threshold. The probabilities reflect the high level of confidence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-12-15T00:00:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |