Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-09T00:12:35

The dissimilarity of the current configuration of coronal holes to past rotations makes the forecast for the current working week low confidence in terms of details, however on balance the reaction in electrons to the recent high solar wind speed from CH22 ought to have made itself felt by now, and as such confidence in remaining below he the 24-hour integrated Active fluence threshold is increasing.

The current second enhancement is likely to prove weaker than the first, so although there may be short-term slight increases seen in flux, these should only result in perhaps diurnal High flux peaks rather than Active fluence. A gradual ebbing away of counts should characterise the second half of the current week, with probabilities dropping slightly accordingly.