MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-10T00:02:34
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background levels with no significant enhancements anticipated until the arrival of the faster wind from coronal hole 13. This is a small coronal hole, and new on this rotation, and is only expected to slightly enhance solar wind conditions on this rotation. Consequently the high energy electron flux is forecast to increase to moderate levels on days 2, 3 and 4 (11th to 13th), with maximum values potentially reaching high (above 1000 pfu) during the diurnal peak.
As any periods of high flux are likely to be short lived, the associated 24 hour fluence, is forecast to remain below the Active threshold, but probably with an upward trend. However, just a small chance at present of approaching the Active level through days 2 to 4 (11th to 13th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-01-10T00:02:34 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |