Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-11T00:15:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) will remain below the High (1000 pfu) threshold for much of the time, although there is an increasing chance of diurnal peaks of the flux coming close to or just over the threshold. This is due to the residual effects of the CME arrival, but also prolonged slightly elevated solar wind speeds for much of the forecast period, due to occasional weak coronal hole influence. The corresponding fluence level is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, despite a gradually increasing trend.

The REFM and the recurrence-persistence model are of limited use, as they are based on persistence. As there is currently CME influence, and no significant coronal hole features which persistence could base a forecast on, the REFM model is considered to be over-estimating the fluence, with levels likely to remain below the Active thrshold.