Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-12T00:16:07

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has persisted at mostly background levels, despite the recent passing CMEs and any coronal hole enhancement of CH01. There remains a possibility of a further increase in flux levels on day 1 and 2, however this only has a slight chance of reaching high (above 1000 pfu) levels.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently at background, and expected to persist at this level through the period. Whilst a slight increasing trend is possible in response to any flux increase that is observed on day 1 and 2, this is not expected to be sufficient to reach Active levels. REFM is currently giving good guidance until T+24, but should be disregarded beyond this as persistence is currently poor from the previous rotation.