Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-05T00:15:23

There is a small chance of the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) reaching the High threshold (1000 pfu) during diurnal peaks in the coming days, but generally Normal Background to Moderate levels are expected. Corresponding 24-hour integrated electron fluence values are expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).

The forecast increases shown in the REFM model are due to a coronal hole high speed stream on the last rotation, which is not now present, however, there remains an outside chance of the 01 December CME glancing Earth on day one (Saturday 05 December), which is the reason for the very slight increase in probabilities into the new working week.