MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-06T00:04:55
The high energy electron flux varied within the confines of Moderate levels in the main, very occasionally falling briefly to Normal. This is likely to remain the case until day 4 (9th Dec) when Earth may connect with a High Speed Stream from CH01/-. This HSS may increase the electron count above the 1000pfu threshold, especially near the diurnal maximum.
Corresponding 24-hour integrated electron fluence values are expected to remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
This is more or less in agreement with the REFM.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-12-06T00:04:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |