MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-12T00:04:29
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain mostly below Alert levels, although there is a chance of brief diurnal peaks above 1000 pfu. The corresponding fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout, with no significant high speed streams to drive it higher. The REFM model output shows fluence levels decreasing, while more of a steady trend is expected. The Met Office recurrence-persistence model continues to display probabilities of around 6 or 7%.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-11-12T00:04:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |