MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-13T00:02:43
With the solar wind at background to slightly elevated levels through the forecast period, and no significant enhancements in the wind speed expected, the high energy electron flux is expected to remain at low to moderate levels, with only a slight chance of temporarily exceeding the High threshold (1000 pfu) during the peak of the diurnal cycles.
The corresponding fluence levels are therefore expected to remain well below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-11-13T00:02:43 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |