MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-14T00:08:40
High energy electron flux levels have persisted at predominantly background values through the last 24 hours in the presence of the ambient or slightly elevated solar wind. Anticipated strengthening through the period under coronal hole influences would be expected to see an increase in electron counts, with flux perhaps breaching the high (1e3pfu) threshold from day 2 (15th). However, any increase will be tempered by potential geomagnetic enhancements.
Electron fluence values are currently at background, and although some increase is likely from day 2, these are presently expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is supported by latest MOSWOC REFM data.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-11-14T00:08:40 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |