MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-15T00:03:47
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at predominantly at background levels, with moderate levels only temporarily being reached during the peak of the diuarnal cycle. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to persist well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is supported by latest REFM forecast model runs, and also from the 27-day recurrence. The recurrence-persistence model has probability values at 1 to 4 percent for Days 2 to 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-10-15T00:03:47 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |