Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-10-22T00:02:09

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at mostly background or moderate values. Although the arrival of the high speed stream from CH88 is likely to boost the electron flux in its wake (on day 2), perhaps breaching the high (1e3pfu) level, the increase is not expected to be regular and may even fall to background levels at times following any significant geomagnetic enhancements. The same is likely to happen on day 4, due to the arrival of the HSS from CH90 and CH91, although this should lead to a further increase of electron counts, perhaps in excess of very high (1e4pfu) levels. 

The associated electron fluence is therefore expected to rise from day 2 onward, probably reaching Active for a time on day 3 (Sat 24) but more certainly on day 4 (Sun 25), although confidence remains low.  On the previous rotation there was a rapid increase in the associated electron fluence, becoming Active through the equivalent period. The increasing trend is supported by REFM.