MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-22T00:01:32
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 is currently at normal background levels and forecast to persist at these levels through days 1 to 3 (22nd to 24th), though perhaps with an increasing trend through day 3. During day 4 (25th) there is a chance the high (1000pfu) threshold may be breached around the diurnal maximum.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence will remain below the Active threshold. This is in agreement with REFM which is currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-09-22T00:01:32 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |