Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-20T00:13:31

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background and is generally expected to remain at this level, with only minor enhancements likely in the solar wind during the first couple of days. However, on Day 3 (22nd) the electron flux is likely to rise above the Alerts level, in response to the high speed stream from positive coronal hole 96. The electron fluence is therefore expected to stay at background levels for much of the period, but is likely to rise late in the period with the fluence possibly exceeding the Active threshold late day 4 (23rd).
The REFM 3-day forecast is currently considered to be offering good guidance. The 27-day recurrence increases the percentage chance of breaching the Active threshold by Day 4, and is close to values from the recurrence-persistence model.