Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-11-11T00:21:15

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been at mostly moderate levels over the last 24 hours, with a peak of 973 pfu through the diurnal cycle on 10Nov and this is marginally higher than the previous day. With solar winds declining, a decreasing trend is likely to commence in electron flux levels. However there continues to be a slight chance that flux levels will peak just above the High (1000 pfu) threshold level on Day 1 (11 Nov).

The expected declining trend means that the electron fluence is likely to remain below the Active threshold, again with a decreasing trend. The Met Office REF model output shows fluence levels decreasing. The Met Office recurrence-persistence model continues to display probabilities of around 6 or 7%, however this particular guidance is considered too high and the table above displays probabilities of 3% or lower.