MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-11T00:24:52
The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 (greater than 2 MeV) is currently at background with no significant enhancements anticipated through the period. The anticipated arrival of the fast wind of CH13 has yet to occur, indicative that any enhancement from it will be weak, with perhaps moderate flux possible at diurnal peak periods early in the forecast period. No other solar wind enhancements are expected.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and forecast to remain at this level, although perhaps a slight enhancement is possible from the forthcoming coronal hole 13 fast wind. This background fluence is supported by REFM, which is currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-01-11T00:24:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |