Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-11T00:18:22

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 has exhibited a diurnal variation between Moderate and High levels for the last few days, and this is likely to continue day 1 and day 2, although peak values likely falling.  The arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 32 perhaps late day 2 (12th), but more likely day 3 (13th) will likely lead to values dropping out to background for a time, before a further rise to Moderate and potentially High levels later day 3 and 4 (14th). 

The associated 24 hour fluence is now expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, but likely rising later day 3 with a chance of reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level during day 4 (14th). REFM supports background levels persisting for the next 3 days, and this is giving good guidance.