Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-10T00:22:19

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at low levels on Day 1 (10th), but may exceed the High 1000pfu threshold near the diurnal maximum on Days 2 & 3 (11th & 12th), before returning to background levels on Day 4 (13th). The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below Active threshold (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) through much of the forecast period, albeit with an increasing trend on Days 2 & 3 (11th & 12th), before decreasing on Day 4 (13th). 

This is broadly supported by the latest REFM forecast, which shows small increases. It is also somewhat confirmed by the current electron level, well below expectations, and the 27-day recurrence model, although the coronal hole configuration is slightly different on this rotation, resulting in probabilities being overestimated.