Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-10T00:29:25

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is expected to persist at predominately background levels. Any enhancement to the near-Earth solar wind from the arrival of coronal hole fast wind is unlikely to increase flux significantly, at least until the arrival of any potentially elevated solar winds with CH58 on day 3 or 4. This, however, is complicated further by the expected CME arrival on day 3 (12th) or early day 4 (13th) from the filament eruption on the 9th May. Consequently increased flux is most likely later on day 4, where it could potentially approach High levels.

The associated electron fluence is therefore forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout, with REFM providing good guidance. A rising trend is likely on day 4 (13th), however, due to any coronal hole or CME sourced enhancement.