Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-09T00:25:44

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to start at background, with a risk of reaching the Alert level with the diurnal maxima during Days 1 to 3 (09 to 11 June). Electron fluence values are expected to start at background, with an increasing trend through Days 1 to 3 (9 to 11 June), but unlikely to breach the 24-hour integrated fluence Active threshold. With recent elevated solar wind speeds there is a small chance of getting close to the threshold. The REFM model continues to show a rising trend, while the 27-day recurrence does not indicate this. The recurrence-persistence model has very low probabilities, which is probably a little too low considering the recent high speed stream from CH65.