Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-10T00:04:48

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels. It now appears unlikely that flux levels will reach the Alert (1000 pfu) level with the diurnal maxima over the next few days. Any further enhancements in the solar wind over the next few days are expected to be minor and therefore unlikely to increase electron levels significantly.

Electron fluence values are currently well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). Again, there may be an increase in the coming days if flux levels start to rise, although this is beginning to be low confidence. The REFM model was showing a rising trend, however it is not forecast to reach Active (1e8 integrated pfu). The recurrence-persistence model is showing very low probabilities of reaching Active at this time.