MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-03T00:19:07
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to remain at mainly background levels through the period with solar wind speeds insufficient to drive the flux rate higher. Electron fluence levels are therefore forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This low trend is supported by the 3-day REFM forecast, and the 27-day REFM recurrence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-06-03T00:19:07 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |