Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-03T00:03:45

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is expected to increase to near the Alert level (1000 pfu) over the next few days at the diurnal maxima. The corresponding electron fluence levels are likely to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but with an increasing trend. This increasing trend is related to the recent high speed stream, although the REFM 3-day forecast keeps the fluence levels below the Active threshold, which is considered reasonable. The 27-day recurrence also suggests levels will remain below Active. The recurrence-persistence model has very low single figure probabilities, which is broadly accepted.