MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-26T00:02:50
With no significant enhancements of the solar wind expected, from coronal holes or Earth directed CME's, within the forecast period the high energy electron flux is expected to persist at low to moderate levels. The associated fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the period.
The REFM 3-day forecast is therefore considered to be offering good guidance. The 27-day recurrence also shows a low trend, as do the probabilities of the recurrence-persistence model.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-06-26T00:02:50 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |