Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-25T00:09:07

The high energy electron flux is expected to remain low to moderate levels, but with very brief excursions above the High threshold of 1000 pfu likely at the peaks of the diurnal cycles, especially today and tomorrow (25th and 26th). This is due to the influence of occasional weak coronal hole features; most likely from  previous CH70 in the northwest quadrant but there are also indications of other weak coronal hole features centre disc.

The associated fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the period, while showing a slightly increasing trend. The Met Office REFM model is therefore considered to be offering good guidance.