MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-26T00:20:40
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GOES-16 has been varying diurnally between moderate and high levels, but is expected drop out to background with the onset of geomagnetic from the anticipated CME arrivals on day 1 (26th). Once the CMEs have passed and geomagnetic activity subsides, observed flux is expected to climb towards High, with a chance of exceeding this count rate.
The associated high energy fluence is forecast to remain below the Active threshold at first, but rising in response to any elevated flux observed post CME clearance. This will bring a chance of Active fluence from the end of day 2 (27th) onward. These CMEs will not be accounted for in REFM, and hence this should be disregarded, particularly beyond T+24.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-05-26T00:20:40 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 5% |