Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-25T00:17:36

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GOES-16 is currently Moderate. Flux levels may approach of briefly exceed the High threshold on Day 1 (25th) at diurnal maximum, but are expected to drop out with the arrival of any CMEs late on Day 1 or during Day 2 (26th). Further increases in flux may occur as any geomagnetic activity subsides especially during Days 3 and 4 (27th and 28th), however, confidence in this aspect is low. 

The associated 24 hour high energy fluence is currently below the Active level and likely to persist at this level through the period. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving good guidance. There is a chance of Active and a slight chance of Very Active fluence towards the end of the period due to any influx of particles from subsiding Geomagnetic activity following the anticipated CMEs, however this carries low confidence and is not accounted for in the REFM output.