MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-24T00:00:06
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GOES-16 is currently Moderate, with the recent coronal hole influence having now receded. These levels are likely to drop out with the arrival of any CMEs late on day 2 or during day 3 (25th or 26th). Further increases in flux may occur as any geomagnetic activity subsides.
The associated 24 hour high energy fluence is currently below the Active level and expected to persist at this level through the period. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving good guidance. There is a slight chance of Active fluence towards the end of the period due to any influx of particles as Earth encounters the anticipated CMEs, however this is low confidence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-05-24T00:00:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 5% |